On November 5, 2024, Americans cast their votes in one of the world’s most closely watched elections, deciding between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump for the presidency. This pivotal election, which also determines the makeup of Congress, will shape US policy for the next four years starting in January 2025.

The Presidential Candidates

The 2024 race sees familiar faces: former President Donald Trump has clinched the Republican nomination, running alongside Ohio Senator JD Vance. On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in after President Joe Biden opted not to seek re-election, and her choice for vice president is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Other independent candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., initially joined the race but later withdrew, endorsing Trump.

The Electoral College: How It Works

Unlike many countries that determine election winners through popular votes, the United States uses an Electoral College system. This means that the national popular vote doesn’t directly decide the winner. Each state has a specific number of electoral votes, determined by the sum of its congressional representation—two votes for its Senators and additional votes based on the number of congressional districts within the state.

The US has a total of 538 electoral votes, and a candidate needs a majority of 270 to secure the presidency. While smaller states like Vermont and Wyoming have three electoral votes, more populous states like California hold 54. This system means that candidates focus on winning individual states rather than the overall national vote, with most states adhering to a winner-takes-all rule. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes based on district-level results, allowing a potential split in their electoral support.

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Battleground States and Their Influence

In each election, specific states known as “battleground” or “swing” states play a decisive role. While many states consistently favor either Democrats or Republicans, battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, can swing either way. Candidates focus their campaigns intensely on these states to sway undecided voters, as they often determine the election’s outcome.

The structure of the Electoral College allows for a scenario where a candidate could win the presidency without a majority in the popular vote—a situation that occurred in 2016 when Trump won the Electoral College despite Hillary Clinton’s popular vote lead. In US history, five presidents have taken office without winning the popular vote, underscoring the unique role of the Electoral College.

Potential Election Day Scenarios

Unique situations, though rare, can arise within the Electoral College. Some “faithless electors” may choose to cast their votes for a candidate who didn’t win their state, though such instances are uncommon. Another scenario involves an Electoral College tie, which would happen if both candidates received 269 electoral votes. If a tie were to occur, the decision would move to the House of Representatives in a “contingent election.” Here, each state delegation casts one vote, and the candidate who wins a majority of the states becomes president. The Senate would choose the vice president through individual senator votes.

In an exceptional situation, this process could lead to a president and vice president from opposing parties. Hypothetically, this means Trump could win the presidency while Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, becomes vice president, or Harris could win the presidency with JD Vance as vice president. This rare event would be decided on January 6, 2025, should a House vote become necessary.

As Americans await the final count, the world watches closely, anticipating the outcome that will guide the United States’ future.